Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."