Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
