Just 60 days in the past that the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him for missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his performances were an indicator or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – yet right now the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.